India Set to Become World’s Fourth-Largest Economy in 2025: IMF
India is on the cusp of a historic economic milestone. According to the latest World Economic Outlook – April 2025 report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country is projected to surpass Japan this year, becoming the world’s fourth-largest economy by nominal GDP.
The IMF estimates India’s nominal GDP for the financial year 2025–26 at USD 4,187.02 billion (approximately ₹348 lakh crore), narrowly edging past Japan’s projected GDP of USD 4,186.43 billion (around ₹347.9 lakh crore). This marginal yet momentous difference will elevate India from its current fifth position to fourth in the global economic rankings.
Strong Growth Trajectory Ahead
India’s rise in global economic stature doesn’t stop at fourth place. The IMF report suggests that India is well-positioned to continue climbing the ranks and is likely to surpass Germany to become the third-largest economy by 2028. At that time, India’s GDP is projected to reach USD 5,584.48 billion, outpacing Germany’s forecasted GDP of USD 5,251.93 billion.
Additionally, India is expected to breach the USD 5 trillion GDP mark by 2027, a symbolic threshold long viewed as a benchmark for major economic powers. This transition underscores the country’s sustained growth, bolstered by strong domestic consumption, robust service and manufacturing sectors, and increasing global investment.
Top 10 World Economies by Nominal GDP in 2025 (IMF Estimates):
| Rank | Country | Nominal GDP (USD billion) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 30,507.22 |
| 2 | China | 19,231.71 |
| 3 | Germany | 4,744.80 |
| 4 | India | 4,187.02 |
| 5 | Japan | 4,186.43 |
| 6 | United Kingdom | 3,839.18 |
| 7 | France | 3,211.29 |
| 8 | Italy | 2,422.86 |
| 9 | Canada | 2,225.34 |
| 10 | Brazil | 2,125.96 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2025
Growth Outlook and Challenges
Despite its upward trajectory, the IMF slightly revised India’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 6.2%, down from its earlier estimate of 6.5% made in January. The revision reflects growing global headwinds, including trade tensions and tariff measures recently enacted by the United States. However, the report highlights resilient rural consumption and domestic demand as key pillars sustaining India’s momentum.
Global Context
While India’s economic advancement is noteworthy, the global rankings at the top are expected to remain stable. The United States and China are projected to retain their positions as the first and second-largest economies in 2025, with nominal GDPs of USD 30.5 trillion and USD 19.2 trillion, respectively.
The IMF also emphasized that the global economy is undergoing significant structural transformation, signaling the end of an 80-year-old economic order and the dawn of a new global era. Within this shifting landscape, India’s emergence as a leading economic power carries increasing global significance.
