India Overtakes Japan to Become 4th Largest Economy; Set to Surpass Germany by 2028
India has officially become the world’s fourth-largest economy, overtaking Japan, and is now on a clear trajectory to climb even higher. According to B.V.R. Subrahmanyam, CEO of NITI Aayog, India is currently valued at $4 trillion, citing recent data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“India has now moved past Japan to become the fourth-largest economy globally,” Subrahmanyam announced during a press conference at the 10th Governing Council Meeting of NITI Aayog. “If we stay the course and execute our plans effectively, we could become the third-largest economy within the next 2.5 to 3 years.”
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook released earlier this month supports this assertion. It projects India’s nominal GDP will reach $4.187 trillion in 2025, just ahead of Japan’s $4.186 trillion, officially securing India’s position at No. 4.
India’s Rapid Rise
The report further forecasts that India will remain the fastest-growing major economy globally, maintaining a growth rate above 6% over the next two years. This robust expansion is expected to boost India’s GDP to $5.58 trillion by 2028, helping it surpass Germany and claim the third spot.
Global Comparison
While India’s growth outlook remains strong, other major economies are projected to slow:
- Germany’s GDP is expected to stagnate due to the ongoing global trade tensions, with zero growth in 2025 and a modest 0.9% in 2026.
- Japan is likely to post 0.6% growth over the next two years, with its economy impacted by trade disruptions.
- The United States, the world’s largest economy, is projected to reach a GDP of $30.5 trillion in 2025, though growth is expected to ease to 1.7%-1.8%.
- China remains second, with a projected GDP of $19.2 trillion by 2025.
Europe’s Sluggish Outlook
The Eurozone faces a slowdown, with projected growth dipping to 0.8% in 2025 before slightly recovering. Among European nations:
- France is expected to grow at just 0.6% in 2025.
- Spain leads the bloc with a 2.5% growth estimate, although it may decelerate in 2026.
- The UK is forecast to grow 1.1% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026.
